ABSTRACT
Introduction. In modern social and educational conditions, the process of uncertainty in pedagogical practice occurs at a rapid pace, due to the globalisation and digitalisation of education, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, there are teachers' transformations and new functions, which cannot affect their pedagogical capabilities;therefore, the article presents a problem on this issue.Aim. The aim of this problematic article is to consider from different points of view the phenom- enon of uncertainty in pedagogical activity and the transformation of the functions of higher school teachers in the conditions of uncertainty caused by the digitalisation of education. Methodology and research methods. The work was based on the methodology of interdisciplinary analysis of theoretical sources, foreign and Russian pedagogical experience in the field of uncertainties;the method of questioning and interviewing teachers of higher education was used to identify attitudes to professional activity in conditions of uncertainty.Results and scientific novelty. In the course of the study, it was found that at the present stage of education development, the transformation of the functions of higher school teachers in conditions of uncertainty is not investigated either in Russian pedagogical practice or abroad due to the undeveloped theoretical provisions in this area of pedagogical activity. The problem is posed in the field of transfor- mation of the capabilities and functions of higher school teachers in conditions of uncertainty from the perspective of different sciences. The scientific novelty of the research is the following developed provi- sions: 1) a new interpretation of the concept of "professional functions of a teacher" is proposed, includ- ing professional competence and professional activity of a teacher in a digital educational environment within his/her subject area at the university;2) a pedagogical model of transformation of teacher func- tions in a digital educational environment is developed, including the functions of teaching, upbringing, methodological function, as well as the function of digital didactics and the digital competence function of the teacher;3) the uncertainty factors and their content that influence the process of transformation of the functions of higher school teachers are identified: technological management of pedagogical ac- tivity;pedagogical practice without emotional contact between the subjects of the educational process;self-realisation in a virtual environment;the need for design thinking;personal growth of a teacher in a digital educational environment;transformation of the functions of managing their own pedagogical practice;4) a classification of uncertainties encountered in the professional activities of higher school teachers has been developed based on two characteristics - belonging to professional educational activ- ities and digital support of pedagogical practice.Practical significance. The proposed classification and uncertainty factors influencing the process of transformation of the functions of higher school teachers can be used in pedagogical practice to deter- mine internal and external influences on teachers in the digital educational environment.
ABSTRACT
This is the first study to examine the differential impact of Croatian and European economic policy uncertainty indices while controlling for the real effective exchange rate and industrial production on international tourist arrivals for the seven coastal counties of Croatia and the country as a whole. The Toda-Yamamoto long-run causality modeling approach with a Fourier approximation is employed to capture structural shifts. This approach is particularly useful in light of the disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector. The results show unidirectional causality from both Croatian and European economic policy uncertainty indices to international tourist arrivals with the impact of the economic policy uncertainty indices negative and statistically significant across the respective coastal counties. Moreover, the findings show that European economic policy uncertainty exhibits a greater adverse impact on international tourist arrivals relative to Croatian economic policy uncertainty.
ABSTRACT
Understanding what factors play a role in people's decisions to travel during a pandemic is important to public health officials and to stakeholders in the travel and tourism industry in the United States (US) and worldwide. This study examines factors influencing people's decisions to cancel/postpone recreational travel within the US amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Our conceptual framework extends the Expected Utility model, commonly used in economics to model decisions under risk and uncertainty, to incorporate subjective norms and perceived behavioral control from the Theory of Planned Behavior. Our results suggest that risk perceptions, subjective norms, and concerns over transmitting COVID-19 to others play a significant role in the decision to cancel and postpone recreational travel. Results also suggest that perceived behavioral control may be less relevant to travel decisions when traveling involves elevated health risks.
ABSTRACT
The study investigates the role of corporate sustainability disclosures in moderating the link between country-level uncertainties (economic policy uncertainty, political uncertainty and uncertainty due to climate change) and firms' risks (total risk, market risk, and default risk) in the worldwide tourism firms. We consider the volume of ESG (environmental, social and governance) activities disclosures by the firms as a proxy of corporate sustainability disclosures. The study also explores the link between sustainability disclosures and firms' risks to validate the risk-reduction hypothesis. The study further highlights the relevance of country-level uncertainties in increasing firms' risks. The findings indicate that corporate sustainability disclosures can assist in mitigating tourism firms' risks during periods of heightened country-level uncertainties. The study also documents the significance of sustainability disclosures in reducing the effect of uncertainties on tourism firms' risks during the COVID-19 period. The results validate the risk-reduction hypothesis indicating that firms' engagement in corporate sustainability practices facilitates risk mitigation efforts during periods of escalated external uncertainties. By demonstrating that firms that engage in sustainability practices and provide required disclosures are better equipped to manage risks during periods of increased uncertainty, the study provides valuable insights for industry stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and firms themselves. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Sustainable Tourism is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous fear and uncertainty and affected health, economy, and social life in an unprecedented form worldwide. Yet, the level of knowledge on its economic implications is very limited. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to explain the health, social, and economic impacts of COVID-19. Because the tourism is one of the most affected industries by the pandemic, this study aims to explain the effects of COVID-19 cases and deaths, global fear, and government responses on Turkey's tourism industry. Empirical findings show that the tourism industry reacts negatively to new cases, number of deaths, and global fear measures. Also, government containment and health measures and economic supports positively affect the tourism industry. Furthermore, government stringency policies drive down the tourism industry's performance. The findings of this study provide significant implications for tourism and travel firms, policy makers, and future research.
ABSTRACT
Due to extreme weather conditions and anomalous events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, utilities and grid operators worldwide face unprecedented challenges. These unanticipated changes in trends introduce new uncertainties in conventional short-term electricity demand forecasting (EDF) since its result depends on recent usage as an input variable. In order to quantify the uncertainty of EDF effectively, this paper proposes a comprehensive probabilistic EFD method based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) and kernel density estimation (KDE). GPR is a non-parametric method based on Bayesian theory, which can handle the uncertainties in EDF using limited data. Mobility data is incorporated to manage uncertainty and pattern changes and increase forecasting model scalability. This study first performs a correlation study for feature selection that comprises weather, renewable and non-renewable energy, and mobility data. Then, different kernel functions of GPR are compared, and the optimal function is recommended for real applications. Finally, real data are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and are elaborated with three scenarios. Comparison results with other conventional adopted methods show that the proposed method can achieve high forecasting accuracy with a minimum quantity of data while addressing forecasting uncertainty, thus improving decision-making.
ABSTRACT
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a powerful and cost-effective tool for investigating chemicals consumption/pathogens infection and health status of populations, and is rapidly evolving as COVID-19 continues to ravage the world. This paper reviews the significant developments and breakthroughs of WBE in 2021 including collection, pretreatment and analysis of sewage samples, materials stability, correction factors calculation and uncertainty analysis, implementation cases and so on, based on the research findings published in international top academic journals or the most influential achievements. It provides reference for clarifying the development of WBE and promoting the research and application of WBE.
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on the overall stock market and the stock performance of the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors utilizing a novel time-varying robust Granger causality test. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic-induced uncertainty has an adverse impact on the overall economy, tourism and hospitality industry, and subsectors of tourism and hospitality. However, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-induced uncertainty is more significant in the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors. In particular, hotels sector has experienced the largest impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by restaurants and airline sectors, respectively. Research and practical implications are discussed.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic and its different waves brought several complications to people's social lives and massively affected business activities worldwide. Accordingly, in this study, we explored the various COVID-19 threats, uncertainties, and risks that are faced by entrepreneurship, propensity, and development. We applied a deductive approach in this study and utilized cross-sectional data that we collected through a questionnaire. We based this study's findings on 320 valid cases. By employing structural equation modeling (SEM), we reveal that factors, such as quality of business environment (QoBE) and access to financial resources (AtFR,) have a positive and significant impact on entrepreneurial propensity (EP). On the other hand, the findings reveal that two factors, namely the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (UoCOVID-19) and the risk perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic (RPoCOVID-19), have a negative effect on EP. This study's findings provide valuable information about the COVID-19 pandemic and, on particular, on the development of EP among university students. In addition, this study's findings guide and support policymakers and higher authorities in understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other business-related factors for developing EP. Further, these findings support the creation of conducive business environments even during a global pandemic or another natural disaster. Finally, this study's findings contribute other empirical evidence to enrich previous research on health, business, and management.
ABSTRACT
Event venues represent a focal point for infectious disease transmission among attendees and event stakeholders, creating lasting uncertainty within the industry post-COVID-19. There is now a need to investigate emerging venue considerations for the event industry as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Ireland as a case, a quantitative questionnaire was used on a sample of event managers. Event venue monitoring for COVID-19 is lacking, while risk mitigation procedures focus more on attendees already at the venue rather than avoiding infected persons entering the venue. Risk assessments now comprise COVID-19 risk;however, a lack of resources means regular health and safety has shown signs of weakening. Government and local authority resources and financial support are required. Pre-venue procedures of symptom screening and proof of vaccination, combined with venue procedures for disinfection of venue spaces, table service, and appropriate ventilation have proven to be effective COVID-19 risk mitigation procedures. Additionally, ICT (information and communications technology) could disseminate up-to-date health guidelines through customer-centric digital environments representing enhanced information sharing to avoid uncertainty and support pro-social intentions of event attendees and compliance with event venue COVID-19 risk mitigation procedures.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 crisis has drastically affected organizations worldwide, thereby influencing the employees' psychological wellbeing. Since it is a new pandemic, research is sparse in the domain of employees' psychological wellbeing in relation to the phenomenon. Drawing on social support and job demand-resource perspectives, this research adds to the factors affecting employees' wellbeing due to the coronavirus outbreak. Specifically, this study is an investigation of co-workers' instrumental support in predicting employees' emotional exhaustion via employees' perceived uncertainties experienced due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, we tested for the contextual specificity of family support on uncertainties and its link with employees' emotional exhaustion. With data drawn from two universities (n = 275), the findings reveal a negative association between co-worker task support and an employee's emotional exhaustion, and an employee's perceived uncertainties mediate this relationship. Moreover, the moderating analysis exhibits that family support mitigates the negative effect of uncertainty perception on emotional exhaustion. Our study reveals that coworker and family support are extremely important during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are equally valuable for organizations and society to mitigate the detrimental effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employees' wellbeing.
ABSTRACT
Purpose: This study aims to explore how the local tour guides (LTGs) operate through the sharing economy platform. This study explores how LTGs have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions using self-efficacy and other resources to improve resilience and performance. This study also delineates the working mechanisms of peer-to-peer (P2P) platform-enabled, dynamic capability building processes, in the tourism sharing economy. Design/methodology/approach: This research adopted an interpretive approach to understand the focal phenomenon using two types of data. A total of 40 semi-structured interviews with LTGs and 26,478 online tourist reviews from tour guide service participants' before and during the COVID-19 pandemic were used. Findings: The findings of this study revealed that LTGs used sharing economy platforms to arrange flexible tour guide services. Resilience emerged through dynamic capability that addressed contextual factors in real time. LTGs coordinated different resources and customers during a time of uncertainty. Different sources of self-efficacy and types of dynamic capability were identified. The interplay between LTGs' self-efficacy and dynamic capability was also delineated. Practical implications: The findings provide guidance for LTGs on P2P platforms and other sharing economy sectors on how diverse resources enabled by the sharing economy can enhance resilience during times of uncertainty. LTGs that engage with contextual information and are dynamic can adopt itineraries and services that will benefit tourists and their business. Originality/value: This study contributes to the sharing economy literature by theorizing the working flow that enables LTGs to exert self-efficacy and leverage dynamic capability on P2P platforms. This study also contributes by linking resilience to contextual factors in real time. The outcomes provide guidance for LTGs to remain competitive and establish resilience in uncertain environments.
ABSTRACT
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to deepen our understanding of the well-being of transient organizations/groups and to use this to develop a novel conceptual framework of gig worker well-being during times of crisis. Design/methodology/approach: A qualitative approach was adopted combining in-depth semi-structured interviews and daily diaries. Twenty-two workers working in the sharing economy were recruited. Thematic analysis was conducted for the diary and interview data. Findings: The findings illustrate a complex picture of sharing economy workers' four dimensions of well-being, including physical, subjective, psychological and social well-being. A number of the COVID-19 pandemic contexts, such as more time, restriction, economic recession and uncertainty, were seen to influence these workers' well-being in different ways including both positive and negative impacts. The precarious nature of gig work within the sharing economy was also found influential, which includes flexibility, uncertainty, temporality and diversity. Furthermore, the specific contexts of the hospitality, tourism and event industry (such as labor-intensive, low esteem, self-value and purpose in life) had also impacted gig workers physical and psychological well-being in various ways. Research limitations/implications: This study complements the gig workers' view of the sharing economy by investigating their well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, this study reveals the complex and various influences hospitality, tourism and events industry contexts made, amplified by the pandemic. Methodologically, the daily diary approach applied in this research has captured gig workers' instant feelings and thoughts, which enriches the current understanding of gig workers' well-being. Practical implications: From the findings and the newly developed conceptual framework, practical implications are proposed focusing on how the tourism, hospitality and event industries should look after their gig workers' well-being in the COVID-ized environment. From the physical well-being perspective, businesses should consider partnering with gym operators to provide corporate packages or discounted membership to their gig workers. From psychological well-being perspective, a recognition system integrating gig workers would be useful to strengthen gig workers' perception of value in their jobs. In addition, technology can be used to introduce more resources to their gig workers, particularly when distancing. Originality/value: A conceptual framework is developed, which captures the influence of both "internal" and "external" determinants of gig worker well-being during times of crisis. This research contributes to theory by developing a framework of well-being in the context of the sharing economy, as well as explicitly addressing how the uncertainty and precariousness of sharing economy work and the hospitality, tourism and event industry contexts relate to well-being. This model is likely to have applicability beyond COVID-19 as the pandemic made clear many existing challenges - rather than just simply creating new ones.
ABSTRACT
Purpose: COVID-19 affects the peer-to-peer (P2P) accommodation industry. With regard to prospect theory, individuals' negative emotions, such as institutional distrust, are easily evoked and impede consumption intention in an environment of permeating uncertainty and risks. While existing research indicates the negative effects of institutional distrust, scant research has explored its antecedents and intervention mechanisms. This study thus aims to unveil the influencing factors and explore mitigating mechanisms of customers' institutional distrust of P2P accommodations. Design/methodology/approach: Online reviews data were used to identify the underlying critical issues. The authors developed a model to depict how institutional distrust is formed under the boundary condition of subjective norm by the results. The model was verified using a questionnaire survey. Finally, in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted to ensure its robustness. Findings: The external environment and internal platform effectiveness are two critical aspects affecting institutional distrust of P2P accommodations. The external environment influences institutional distrust through perceived threat, explaining the formation mechanism of customers' institutional distrust through customers' internal psychology. Furthermore, the authors found subjective norm moderating the effect of perceived threat on customers' institutional distrust. Research limitations/implications: This is one of the first studies, to the best of the authors' knowledge, to explore institutional distrust of P2P accommodations after COVID-19. The finding contributes to studies on P2P accommodation by uncovering the contingent role of subjective norm in influencing customers' institutional distrust. Originality/value: This is a pioneering study that explores the antecedents and mitigating mechanisms of institutional distrust of P2P accommodations during the new normal of COVID-19.
ABSTRACT
Decision analysis (DA) is an explicitly prescriptive discipline that separates beliefs about uncertainties from value preferences in modeling to support decision making. Researchers have been advancing DA tools for the last 60 years to support decision makers handling complex decisions requiring subjective judgments. Recently, some DA researchers and practitioners wondered whether the difficult decisions made during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding testing, masking, closing and reopening businesses, allocating ventilators, and prioritizing vaccines would have been improved with more DA involvement. With its focus on quantifying uncertainties, value trade-offs, and risk attitudes, DA should have been a valuable tool for decision makers during the pandemic. To influence decisions, DA applications require interactions with policymakers and experts to construct formal representations of the decision frame, elicit uncertainties, and assess risk tolerances and trade-offs among competing objectives. Unfortunately, such involvement of decision analysts in the process of decision making and policy setting did not occur during much of the COVID-19 pandemic. This lack of participation may have been partly because many decision makers were unaware of when DA could be valuable in helping with the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, decision analysts were perhaps not sufficiently adept at inserting themselves into the policy process at critical junctures when their expertise could have been helpful.
ABSTRACT
It often occurs that after a multi-criteria decision is made, the decision maker becomes unsure as to whether they have made the best decision. This doubt arises because the criteria being considered do not carry the same weightings. This instability is relevant to the consideration of possible future events, such as a possible recession following the COVID-19 outbreak, which may affect the criteria weightings. The stratified multi-criteria decision-making method (SMCDM) has been proposed to address this issue. This method suggests the consideration of a number of states in the decision-making process. In each state, the weightings of the criteria are different depending on which event or which combination of events are being considered. The states are associated with transition probabilities that are used to compute the optimal weightings of the criteria. This paper suggests approaches to compute the transition probabilities. Moreover, the consideration of several events in SMCDM results in a great number of states and this would be a time consuming and error prone process. Hence, the incremental enlargement characteristic of the concept of stratification (CST) is added to SMCDM in order to reduce the large numbers of states to a manageable quantity. IEEE
ABSTRACT
Objectives: The study analyzes the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the elite athletes practicing martial arts both in terms of fear and intolerance of uncertainty. Methods of research: 30 athletes practicing martial arts participated in this study: 10- pankration, 10- judo and 10 - wrestling, aged from 15 to 35 years. The impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the elite martial arts athletes was assessed from the perspective of the two scales (Fear Scale and Intolerance Scale) obtained from Research Central. The Fear Scale related to Covid-19 includes 7 items and was created by Ahorsu et al. (2020). The Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale - short form - includes 12 items. Thus, the prospective anxiety and inhibitory anxiety were calculated. The athletes were assessed through the two scales, in a single ascertaining stage. Results: Regarding the Fear of Covid-19 Scale (the reference range is between 7 and 35), the results indicate an increased fear of Covid-19: most athletes had results over 25. In the case of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (reference ranges: from 12 to 28), the athletes obtained scores between moderate tolerance to uncertainty and increased tolerance to uncertainty (namely scores from 28 to 60). As for the two factors resulting from this scale: the prospective anxiety - the scores ranged from 25 to 38;for the second factor - inhibitory anxiety - the scores ranged from 19 to 35, which shows a prospective anxiety and a moderate to high inhibitory anxiety. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most important sources of current uncertainty in the physical and mental health of the athletes and of the entire population too. The results of the study provided relevant information about the fear of Covid-19 pandemic and of intolerance of uncertainty as well. Thanks to this information, the athletes were offered methods to cope with the pandemic period, such as: relaxation techniques and breathing techniques meant to optimize and improve sports performance.
ABSTRACT
This research analyses "tourist mobility" in the context of the health crisis of COVID-19 to unravel the meanings that situated actors produce about this practice at an exceptional moment in history. Based on an ethnographic case, the archetype of the Argentine tourist corridor, this article portrays the 2020-2021 holiday season, investigating the experiences of tourists and permanent residents who received seasonal displacements in their territories. From here, it was possible to recover a series of transformations that allow us to understand how the pandemic disrupted the meanings associated with "summer culture" and its counterpoint, "the local tourist season";all this with the purpose of outlining triggering hypotheses about the traces that this atypical season may have left on tourism practice.
ABSTRACT
Purpose: This chapter evaluates the impacts of and response measures to COVID-19 pandemic on the practice of tourism in the wildlife conservancy model in Kenya thus proposing response interventions to possible tourism crises in the future. Methodological Design: The study uses the qualitative exploratory experience design and collects data from purposely selected conservancies' leaders and other documented materials from two main wildlife conservancies association in Kenya. Findings: The chapter presents findings on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on wildlife conservancy-based tourism, how conservancies responded to the pandemic and conservancy leadership perspectives on how to model future tourism and related activities in the conservancies based on the lessons they have learnt from the COVID-19 experience. Research limitation/Implications: With the wildlife conservancy-based tourism model in Kenya being a relatively new phenomenon, the study provides important lessons for comparison with other such initiatives in other places in the event of tourism crises in the future. Originality/Value: This chapter argues that better preparedness to crises and uncertainties by various tourism types and models can help mitigate against adverse effects of similar uncertainties in the future. Consequently, the findings offer a glimpse of proposals and solutions to the wildlife conservancy-based tourism models that continue to be established in Kenya and in the region. © 2022 Joseph K. Muriithi.
ABSTRACT
This study analyses tourist flows in the UNESCO World Heritage Historic Centre of Florence before the occurrence of the COVID-19 crisis and examines how the pandemic has impacted the city. We build a system of indicators to measure the carrying capacity of art cities, assessing the risk exposure of these historic settings to overtourism. The model provides a detailed picture of the evolving tourism phenomenon and the economic, social, and environmental implications thereof. The indicators system supports local decision-makers in monitoring tourism flows and evaluating critical policies to preserve the destination heritage. It further examines the sustainable strategy implemented by the Municipality of Florence towards tourism recovery, as cities of art need to protect their cultural heritage and balance the needs of residents and tourists.